So Oscar night is here again. By default, the management of the Virgin Megastore Orlando Oscar competition has fallen to me - and I spent the whole of last evening collating and tabulating peoples' votes.
( For what it's worth, some of the results of the voting can be found behind the cut. )Less interesting, perhaps, are my own predictions. For the record, they are as follows:
PICTUREWill win:
CrashShould win:
CrashI'm likely to be wrong on this one, but I'm hoping that the Academy might just go with quality over hype. Plus half of Hollywodd was
in the film and the half of Tinseltown that doesn;t want to sleep with Reese Witherspoon (who will, therefore, win Best Actress) wants to sleep with Ryan Phillippe - and
Crash is set in LA, which a lot of voters call home. None of this has much to do with the fact that
Crash is a vastly superior film to
Brokeback Mountain, but you never know - the Academy could, for once, do the right thing.
ACTORWill win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Should win: Terrence Howard
I can do a better Truman Capote impersonation. And I can certainly grunt as well as Heath Ledger, the other contender that some people think has a hope of taking home the award. For sheer acting chops, the award should be Howard's.
ACTRESSWill win: Reese Witherspoon
Should win: Felicity Huffman
I have nothing against America's Most Recent Sweetheart, but - sorry - June Carter was just not that demanding a role. Nevertheless, everyone seems to love the pointy-chinned little bitch that nabbed Ryan Phillippe.
SUPPORTING ACTORWill win: George Clooney
Should win: Matt Dillon
Syriana should have been nominated for Picture or Screenplay, not Supporting Actor. Clooney will get this as a consolation prize. The same argument has been used for a Paul Giamatti win, but Hollywood likes Clooney more - and he's prettier.
SUPPORTING ACTRESSWill win: Rachel Weisz
Should win: Frances McDormand
Weisz is good, but McDormand is better. Neither has that much screen time in their respective films, but Frances McDormand should be given an award every year because she's brilliant and I love her. So there.
DIRECTORWill win: Ang Lee
Should win: Paul Haggis
Lee should have won in 1995 for
Sense and Sensibility (rather than the idiotic
Braveheart that year) or, maybe, 1997's
The Ice Storm (the year of the execrable
Titanic), but not for this thing. To be blunt: Haggis simply did better work in
Crash than Lee did in
Brokeback Mountain. For that matter, George Clooney did better work in
Good Night, and Good Luck than Lee did this year. Yeah, well.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILMWill win:
TsotsiShould win:
Paradise NowThe Academy will go with
Tsotsi because they should have given this award to the similar (and deserving)
City of God from Brazil four years ago and because they're too cowardly to give it to the superior Palestinian entry.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAYWill win:
Brokeback MountainShould win:
A History of ViolenceLarry McMurtry and Diana Ossana took an unbearably moving story and turned it into an cold, passionless, over-extended yet underdeveloped character study that missed the point entirely. Yeah, give that pair an Oscar. I'd be happy if
anything else won (well, except for
Munich - but that's because Tony Kushner is a fucking asshole who should be lynched rather than honored). I'd go with
A History of Violence or, failing that,
The Constant Gardener. The screenplays for both put
Brokeback to shame.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYWill win:
CrashShould win:
Match PointAs it happens, I'm glad
Crash is the favorite - this may be about the only award the Best Picture of the Year takes home and it deserves all the attention it can get. But, in terms of writing,
Match Point was the best script to have been filmed last year.
Crash was a close second - with
The Squid and the Whale a close third.
Then we'd get to some of the adapted screenplays.
Brokeback Mountain would still come last.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILMWill win:
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-RabbitShould win:
Tim Burton's Corpse BrideWallace and Gromit will win because
Chicken Run was robbed in 2000 (prompting the addition of Best Animated Feature in 2001), but all three W&G shorts are better than their first feature. Besides, in the stop-action stakes,
Corpse Bride was generally better designed and executed - and the story was vastly better-written.
ART DIRECTIONWill win:
Memoirs of a GeishaShould win:
King KongSomething tells me that the Academy will go with period and location over damned excellent art direction. The design of
King Kong - especially the New York sequences was nothing short of brilliant.
Geisha, while worthy, was pretty much been there, done that. I actually went with
Kong as my vote in the Virgin competition, but suspect that Depression-era New York won't do it for the bulk of the west coast voters.
CINEMATOGRAPHYWill win:
Brokeback MountainShould win:
Brokeback MountainThis was the one area where
Brokeback genuinely excelled. No one can fault the lighting or camerawork here. I'd put Batman Begins as a close second, but I suspect it doesn't stand a chance.
SOUND MIXINGWill win:
Walk the LineShould win:
King KongNot only was the sound in
King Kong stunning, it was loud - which tends to attract the non-technical voters in this category. However, the general voter also tends to favor musicals - and they will most likely use this as an oblique way of honoring Johnny Cash and giving the film a second award. I also went with
Kong for this one in the Virgin competition, as well - but the consensus vote there convinced me that
Walk the Line might prove as popular with the Academy voters.
SOUND EDITINGWill win:
King KongShould win:
King KongAgain, it was good and loud - and
Walk the Line wasn't nominated.
ORIGINAL SCOREWill win:
Brokeback MountainShould win:
Brokeback MountainSantaolalla's score was the best thing about this movie and I suspect that the two John Williams nominations will cancel each other out. Otherwise, the Academy would no doubt have gone with a typically overproduced score with a big orchestra and swelling major chords. They may still go with
Geisha or (as a boobie prize for Spielberg)
Munich, but I think
Brokeback will slip through.
ORIGINAL SONGWill win:
In the DeepShould win:
In the DeepThematically,
In the Deep tied into the film's subject matter extremely well - plus it's a good song.
It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp is a contender, but I suspect it's a bit too edgy for a votership whose average age is roughly 107.
Travelin' Through is too innocuous, despite Hollywood's love for Dolly parton. It'll be ebough to see her on the stage of the Kodak Theater.
COSTUME DESIGNWill win:
Memoirs of a GeishaShould win:
Memoirs of a GeishaApart from Ziyi Zhang's performance, this is the one thing that
Memoirs had going for it. Besides, apart from
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (which was just too garish for the Academy), the other nominees are just too lackluster.
DOCUMENTARY FEATUREWill win:
March of the Fucking PenguinsShould win:
MurderballFor me, this was a bit of a toss-up between
Murderball and
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room. Unfortunately,
the best documentary iof the year (The Aristocrats) was not even nominated. Instead, I suspect the Academy will go with one of the
worst films of the year - and one of the worst documentaries ever made.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECTWill win:
God Sleeps in RwandaShould win:
The Death of Kevin CarterThe Academy will go with
God Sleeps in Rwanda because it has Rwanda in the title and they may feel bad about snubbing last year's best film,
Hotel Rwanda. In fact,
The Death of Kevin Carter is not only closer to
Hotel Rwanda thematically, it is also the superior fimlm.
FILM EDITINGWill win:
CrashShould win:
CrashI don't think anything else stands a chance.
MAKEUPWill win:
The Chronicles of NarniaShould win:
The Chronicles of NarniaStar Wars: Episode XXVII The Return of the Attack of the Snood</i> probably deserves it, and would no doubt have one if it hadn't been the twenty-seventh installment. Instead, I expect it will go to relative newcomer
Narnia.
ANIMATED SHORT FILMWill win:
The Moon and the SonShould win:
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper MorelloJasper Morello is more fully realized, more interesting visually, and more technically accomplished, but
The Moon and the Son is cuter and has a "message". I first thought
Jasper Morello might be good enough to sway the Academy (and voted that way on the Virgin ballot), but they'll probably end up going with cute message.
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILMWill win:
Ausreisser (The Runaway)Should win:
Six ShooterThis is total guesswork. I'm only backing
Six Shooter because it's Irish. In fact, I predicted it would win in the Virgin competition - because it's Irish. But
Ausreisser is both foreign language and issue-oriented and both are often popular in this category.
VISUAL EFFECTSWill win:
King KongShould win:
King KongThey were simply the best.
And now it's off to the red carpet...
Tags: movie madness, queerness, virginal
humour:
contemplative